Recently, China's Customs released the data of commodity import and export in November. The export volume of acrylonitrile in that month exceeded 10000 tons for the first time, reaching 119 thousand tons, the highest level in history. From January to November 2019, the total export volume of acrylonitrile reached 36000 tons, and it is expected that the annual export volume will exceed 40000 tons.
Since 2016, the export volume of acrylonitrile in China has increased year by year, mainly based on the background that the domestic market has gradually changed from under supply to over supply. With the gradual release of new production capacity, the growth rate of domestic acrylonitrile production is greater than the growth rate of demand. It is expected that China's acrylonitrile market will completely enter into a state of surplus by 2020. Therefore, before that, domestic suppliers have begun to explore the way of export and extend sales channels to foreign markets.
Looking back at the data over the past five years, from the first export in 2016 to 2018, the annual export volume of acrylonitrile is less than 10000 tons, because before 2019, the domestic supply is still in short supply, so the export volume is very small. In 2019, with the smooth production of the second phase of srbon, the domestic supply increased significantly, while the supply gap occurred due to the shutdown of some units in the international market, so domestic product export opportunities were given. In addition, in the whole year of 2019, the price of external market is relatively high, which also provides a good window for export arbitrage.